Here’s what it would take for Democrats to win in each of Virginia’s five Republican-held congressional districts
Democrats could potentially win five Republican-held congressional districts in Virginia through increased voter turnout or shifts in Republican voter preference. The path to victory varies by district, requiring either presidential-level turnout or a change in partisan support.
In three districts, Democrats could win with a presidential-level turnout if Republicans stay at a midterm-level turnout. In two others, Democrats need either a higher turnout than that, or for some Republican voters to change their minds. Here's the math.
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